The post-pandemic uptick in job moves, dubbed ‘the great resignation’ by some, is well and truly over, according to the CIPD’s latest Labour Market Outlook (LMO) report.
As the jobs market cools, people are increasingly staying in their current jobs and more employers are working to keep staff levels steady.
More than half (55 percent) of employers are looking to maintain their current staff level, the CIPD quarterly survey of 2,009 employers found. This is the highest level since winter 2016/17.
These findings, in conjunction with data from the ONS vacancy survey and analysis on turnover from the Labour Force Survey, indicate lower staff attrition in 2024 and that trends are returning to pre-pandemic levels.
The percentage of employers expecting staff levels to increase in the next three months has dropped to 30 percent, from 37 percent twelve months ago, confirming a downward trend in workforce growth expectations.
In response to these market conditions, the CIPD urged employers to focus on upskilling people to retain and develop their existing workforce.
The CIPD also said that upskilling the existing workforce is now the most common employer response to managing hard-to-fill-vacancies (52 percent), while 36 percent of employers are increasing the duties of existing staff.
Pay rises remain a solid option for employers as well, with 41 percent of employers using this approach to recruit or upskill into hard-to-fill vacancies in the past six months.
James Cockett, labour market economist for the CIPD, said: “When the economy reopened post-pandemic, turnover and vacancy levels rose in response to the hot recruitment market. Now, the so-called ‘great resignation’ is well and truly over and has been replaced by ‘the big stay’, with more people opting for job stability.
“Falling staff turnover and vacancies also mean the balance of power in the labour market is moving in the direction of employers and away from workers.”
He said that the trends in LMO suggest there is “likely to be further falls in both turnover and vacancy levels in 2024” and urged employers to factor in this lower attrition when making decisions around staffing levels and the future of their workforce.
“We are now entering a more stable period, as recruitment trends bounce back to pre-pandemic levels.
“In this context, it’s even more important that employers invest in existing staff through upskilling and development opportunities.”
Neil Morrison, group HR director at Severn Trent, took issue with certain terms used to characterise job market trends, posting on LinkedIn: “We didn’t have a ‘great resignation’ and we don’t have a ‘big stay’ *glares at the CIPD*.
“Please stop sensationalising non-existent phenomena for the white collar chattering classes and taking media space from the issues that matter to the majority of the working population.”
He emphasised the need for more focus on ensuring a real living wage, creating a safe physical work environment and reducing unstable contracts and working hours. He also highlighted the imperative to provide a pension people can retire on, champion women’s rights at work and health provision, improve social mobility and socio economic diversity and reduce the ethnicity pay gap.
